2/24/14 (47H)


Komenini’s 1970 lectures, published as Islamic Government, give a good picture of a new vanguard leading a purged and transformed society. Westernized leftists who’d rallied around the reformist president Mohammand Khatami (1997-2005) fewer would have made so gross an error as to predict the evanescing of Iranian theocracy in the 1990’s. “Realists” like Kerry always want a apply Jacques Derrida to foreign policy: ideas reified on the page. Some dems congressmen and senior adm officials appear to be giving the Iranian regime a strange benefit of the doubt.
So what can one say when officials the white house, Dems, congressmen, newspaper editors, heavy-weight columnists, think tankers and academics describe the “interim?” nuclear deal struck on 11/24 in Geneva. Joint Plan of Action—as a serious diplomatic first step that could lead us away form an Iranian nuke and an American “march to war”?
Leaders of the revolutionary guard have never been taciturn in describing how attached they are to their nuclear program and how much they loathe the USA. Clerical regime has been importing and building the means to construct nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.
Rouhani and minister Zarif are lying through their teeth when they say that the Islamic Republic has never had any design to build atomic weapons. One has to ask what deputy national security adviser Benjamin Rhodes meant when he confessed “It just stands to reason if you close the diplomatic option you’re left with a difficult choice of waiting to see if sanctions cause Iran to capitulate, which we don’t think will happen, or considering military actions”.
David Albright estimates that in order to ensure that the program serves only civilian purposes, Tehran would have to disable approximately 15,000 centrifuges from its uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow, close down the Fordow facility. And convert the heavy-water reactor at Arak to a light-water facility incapable of producing plutonium for a bomb. The ISIS projection would still leave Tehran with an enrichment capacity—it would still have 4.000 spinning first-generation centrifuges.
Zarif’s deputy Abbas Araghchi, has flatly stated this will not happen. “As far as we are concerned, the heavy-water reactor at Arak is clear: It must remain as a heavy-water reactor. Iran’s nuclear program has not been set back at all.
Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy—“we are not halting any nuclear activity, but only voluntarily reducing enrichment of six months, so that there can be comprehensive negotiations to determine what will happen with enrichment about 5%.
“No activity will be halted”. Salehi must know well, neutralizing Iran’s nuclear weapons quest would also require Tehran to make available its paperwork and engineers involved with centrifuge-mfg and the importation of centrifuge parts and open Iran to unchallenged spot inspections by the UN. Ali Velayati the Islamic Republic will not allow inspections of undeclared sites.
The regimes centrifuge research untouched by the interim deal, will give it the capacity to construct ever-more advanced centrifuges in larger numbers, provided Tehran has no supply problems. And why should it have supply problems? So far, UN, US and EU sanctions against nuclear-related machinery have not seriously impeded the regimes impressive growth in centrifuge production since 2006 (134 spinning centrifuges then; around 9,000 with and addition 10,000 installed today). The US government has no satellite or aerial means of detecting an enrichment facility hidden in a warehouse.
Clandestine facilities loaded with advanced centrifuges could easily be started fro scratch and rapidly developed. Langley has been unable to penetrate either Iran’s ruling elite or the nuclear-weapons research establishment.
Conceivable circumstances are: If the paint of sanctions is so intense that he fears for the regimes survival. The military threat form the Obama adm is tangible and regime-threatening or Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards who dominate a big slice of the Iranian economy, gets hooked on sanction relief and become avaricious and avuncular capitalist.
Obama might still be obliged to strike Iran nuclear facilities if the Guard did something monumentally stupid—like organize another big terrorist strike against Americans.
An Iranian act of terrorism might have to be really big to force Obama to take out Tehrans nuclear sites.
If sanctions relief proves to be worth much more to Iran than the $7 billion claimed by the White House this reasoning makes no historical sense. The Iranians regime has already lost a least $100 billion because of nuke-related sanctions.
The regime will likely become even more paranoid and unstable, not less, as more wealth allows more Iranians again to feed their Western desires.
Obama’s speeches and radio interviews form 2007 and 2008 displayed his ignorance of Islamic and Iranian history. But for the last five years Obama has had access to all the classified material on the clerical regime’s nefariousness and mendacity about the nuclear program most glaringly about the Fordow site.

Has Obama learned from his “let’s make-up presidential entreaties to Khamenei; the crushing of the Green Movement; Iran’s lethal actions against Americans troops in Iraq and AFG ; the thwarted terrorist strike in a Georgetown restaurant in 2011, Tehran’s all-in support to the Assad regime. Yet all this may not be enough o overwhelm the president ideology telling him how the world ought to work and what is own historic possibilities.
In all probability, Khamenei will walk as soon as the western powers insist that Tehran actually make concessions that enfeeble the nuclear program, Rouhani argued the US and its European allies can be divided and defeated through clever diplomacy. The supreme leader wasn’t lying when he said in Qom that they hadn’t been forced to the negotiation table in Geneva; he came “ to negotiate with the Devil to eliminate its evil,” to beat the Devil at his own diplomatic game.

The current nuclear negotiations will fail. The white house will most likely be unable to bend for enough to satisfy the supreme leader and his men.

Source—weekly standard, reuel marc gerecht


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