THE OBAMA COMPLEX

7H 3/22/14
The state of the Union—“you see, in a world of complex threats, our security and leadership depends on all elements of our power—including strong and principled diplomacy’. With the respect to Iran, “we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed’.
In a world of complex threats, diplomacy won’t succeed unless backed up by the other elements of our power. Sanctions are being dismantled; the threat of military action has virtually disappeared. Obama Iran policy now rest exclusively on diplomacy and will therefore fail.
As did the diplomacy-only policy he pursued for the first 18 months of his presidency. Obama desperately wanted to talk to the mullahs in Tehran. A more complex strategy, was supplementing diplomacy with new sanctions on Iran. Obama has lost interest in sanctions; it’s once again diplomacy only!
His most recent effort the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) of 1/20, grants Tehran significant concession while getting little in return. It doesn’t roll back Iran’s nuclear program. It puts some parts of it on pause while permitting others to move ahead. No part of the nuclear infrastructure is dismantled
.if adhered to by the regime—would delay Iran’s nuclear progress by perhaps one or two months. Iran can continue to build up its stockpile of 3.5% enriched uranium and can continue to tweak its centrifuges. It can also continue work on he Arak heavy water plant designed only to produce nuclear weapons.
The deal has a 6-month term. A credible threat to attack Iran’s nuclear sites—that gone too. After the failure to act in Syria, after making withdrawal the priority in Iraq and AFG no one believes Obama will act against Iran. Iran will continue to accumulate its stockpile of enriched uranium drawing closer to nuclear weapons capability.
59 senators, including 16 dems have cosponsored legislation to impose new sanctions if Iran cheats or if there is no sound and comprehensive deal in a reasonable time. The Iranians have declared that passage of this bill would prompt them to walk away form the negotiation table, and Obama has according pledged to veto the legislation.
The one time the program seems to have actually halted happens to have been the one time Iranian took seriously the threat of American military action: in 2003 after the invasion of Iraq.
Iran if no acceptable final agreement is in place 180 days after the JPA’s formal implementation on 1/20. At that time, the US should do nothing that would impinge upon Israel’s ability to decide what actions it must take—ant indeed should support Israel if it takes military action’
The polls show the public would want America to support such an Israel action if its necessary to prevent the Iranians regime form acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Source—weekly standard, bill kristol, Michael makovsky

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